We are becoming used to claims that the UK might have to pay a very hefty bill in order to leave the EU.
In contrast, one and a half years ago a consultancy report (K Hubner and KLC Consulting August 2015, “Modelling Irish Unification”) claimed that Irish unity could be something of a money-making exercise – one consequence of unity would be that incomes would rise in both Irish economies in the 5-10 years after unification.
Hubner’s were conditional forecasts – KLC made certain assumptions and then forecast how the economy might respond. As the report itself concedes, “The models are abstractions of reality, embodying many assumptions”.
The sensible thing to do, therefore, is review KLC’s assumptions. Four in particular are problematic:
Abstractions of reality
We are becoming used to claims that the UK might have to pay a very hefty bill in order to leave the EU.
In contrast, one and a half years ago a consultancy report (K Hubner and KLC Consulting August 2015, “Modelling Irish Unification”) claimed that Irish unity could be something of a money-making exercise – one consequence of unity would be that incomes would rise in both Irish economies in the 5-10 years after unification.
Hubner’s were conditional forecasts – KLC made certain assumptions and then forecast how the economy might respond. As the report itself concedes, “The models are abstractions of reality, embodying many assumptions”.
The sensible thing to do, therefore, is review KLC’s assumptions. Four in particular are problematic: